BIST100 Weekly Technical Analysis and Scenario Map

The weekly technical picture for the **BIST100** index and a possible scenario map for the coming week. **Weekly Chart Summary** The weekly close was maintained within the ascending trend channel. EMA20 (weekly) continues to act as a support level. Trend integrity is preserved without a breakout. **Volume Analysis** Volume in rising weeks was higher compared to declining weeks. This "volume-direction alignment" signals that the uptrend is strong. **Technical Indicators** - MACD (weekly): Expanding above the zero line - RSI (14, weekly): Positioned above 60 - Stochastic: Approaching overbought threshold — caution warranted **Scenario A — Rally Continues** EMA20 (weekly) holds. Intra-session pullbacks are responded to and closed. Weekly close again high. Target: Previous peak zone. **Scenario B — Consolidation** Closing above EMA20 (weekly) is maintained but upside momentum slows. Movement within a horizontal band. A technical preparation phase for Scenario A. **Scenario C — Correction** EMA20 (weekly) breaks and cannot be recovered at the close. EMA50 (weekly) test comes onto the agenda. Historically, such corrections are normal within the medium-term trend. **Risk Factors** - Global risk appetite deterioration - Political/geopolitical developments - Unexpected macro data **Conclusion** The weekly trend is constructive. Attention is required in short-term momentum indicators. Scenario A is dominant, but the probability of Scenario C is not zero.