Expectations and pricing dynamics in the Dollar/TRY market as the Monetary Policy Committee meeting approaches.
Expectation pricing is intensifying in the **USDTRY** market as the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting draws near.
**Market Expectations**
Analyst forecasts are tilting toward no change in interest rates. The possibility of an intra-band rate adjustment remains on the agenda. If the "tight stance" emphasis is preserved in the statement, pressure on the TL could remain limited.
**Technical Picture**
A short-term triangle formation draws attention on the daily chart. The width of the formation can generate a clear directional signal after a breakout. Bollinger Bands are contracting; the potential for a sharp move is elevated.
**Macro Context**
Global risk appetite recovered last week. Capital inflows into emerging-market currencies accelerated. The TL moved into a partially advantageous position within this flow.
**Data to Watch**
- MPC meeting statement (time/date announced by the institution)
- US inflation data
- Turkey current account balance figure
**Strategy Note**
Volatility is elevated ahead of the meeting. Risk management should be a priority in leveraged positions. The price reaction after the decision could clarify the direction of the trend.
