The Dollar/TRY pair is testing a critical support zone. Technical indicators and a scenario map for the days ahead.
**USDTRY** is approaching the lower band of its short-term descending channel. A key decision point has formed on the daily chart.
**Technical Outlook**
Price has pulled back to the zone where the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA50) intersects with horizontal support. This zone attracted strong buying interest in the previous quarter. Daily RSI is approaching oversold territory; momentum losses are slowing.
**Support Levels**
Primary support sits at the current position. Secondary support coincides with a psychological round-number zone. If these levels hold, a short-term recovery rally can be expected.
**Resistance Levels**
To the upside, EMA20 forms the first resistance. Next comes the zone where weekly closes have clustered. A break above these levels could turn the trend higher again.
**Scenario 1 — Support Holds**
Buying interest arrives from the current zone and price clears EMA20. Short-term target is the weekly resistance zone.
**Scenario 2 — Support Breaks**
A closing-basis breakdown occurs. The next strong support and further TL depreciation could come into focus.
**Conclusion**
Watch the daily close carefully. Increased volatility is expected. Stop-loss discipline is critical for position management.
